DOI: 10.18503/1995-2732-2024-22-1-122-131
Abstract
Problem Statement (Relevance). The problem of taking part in public procurement is currently relevant for many manufacturers. A key issue is attributed to feasibility of the participation and the probability estimate of winning a competition for delivery of products. On the one part, the participation in public procurement guarantees steady demand represented by standing orders and, consequently, more thorough planning and full utilization of production capacities of enterprises. On the other part, a competition is the probability of not only winning, but also losing. The complexity of the formal participation procedure, the need for ensuring warranty obligations, and, as a consequence, the freezing of current assets are factors frequently resulting in a refusal of manufacturing enterprises to take part in public procurement. Objectives. The paper is aimed at developing a methodological approach used by manufacturing enterprises to estimate chances and the probability of winning a particular competition in advance to get a possibility of prompt planning of production capacity utilization. Methods Applied. The methodological framework of the research includes a logical analysis and tools of the regression analysis adapted to this scientific task. Originality. The analysis of publications on the research field showed that the issues of the participation in public procurement were considered from the point of either a managerial approach, or research by the institute of public procurement. The problem of the participation in public procurement is practically not considered taking into account production capacity utilization. Scientific novelty lies in choosing focus on the issues of the participation in public procurement and development of a methodological approach to estimating the probability of winning. Results. For the first time, a new methodological approach was proposed to estimate the probability of winning a public procurement competition by an industrial enterprise. The authors used a logical analysis and tools of the regression analysis. Practical Relevance. The paper proposes a methodological approach to estimating the probability of winning and feasibility of the participation of industrial enterprises in public procurement, which is a practical tool for a decision-maker.
Keywords
industrial engineering, manufacturing planning, manufacturing industry, production facilities, regression analysis, probability estimation, methodological approach, public procurement
For citation
Tretyakova V.A., Gorlacheva E.N. The Elaboration of a Methodological Approach to Estimating the Probability of Winning a Competition to Plan Production Capacity Utilization. Vestnik Magnitogorskogo Gosudarstvennogo Tekhnicheskogo Universiteta im. G.I. Nosova [Vestnik of Nosov Magnitogorsk State Technical University]. 2024, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 122-131. https://doi.org/10.18503/1995-2732-2024-22-1-122-131
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