Shcheglov D.K., Shcheglov K.N. Express Method for Assessing the Complexity of New Developments Based on Analog Projects

DOI: 10.18503/1995-2732-2025-23-2-188-200

Abstract

Problem Statement (Relevance). In commonly accepted methods for conducting feasibility studies in the field of mechanical engineering, the complexity of projects is typically accounted for using empirical coefficients that lack strict scientific and theoretical justification. Therefore, there is a pressing need to improve existing methods of production organization to enhance the accuracy of complexity assessments for future projects, which, in turn, will enable more precise estimates of labor intensity and project timelines. Objectives. The objective of this work is to develop a scientific and methodological toolkit for assessing the complexity of new developments based on information from analogous projects. Methods Applied. The express methodology is based on methods of systems analysis, expert analysis, non-parametric statistics, as well as the methodological recommendations of the Ministry of Labor of Russia for labor standardization in the execution of research and development (R&D) projects. Originality. A unified methodology is proposed that allows for the assessment of the complexity of various projects in the field of mechanical engineering, specifically research, design, and production-technology projects. Result. A formalized approach is proposed for analyzing the complexity of new developments based on analogous (prototype) projects. A system of indicators for the preliminary assessment of the complexity of new research and development projects is presented. Acceptable numerical values for these indicators are suggested for research and development in the field of specialized mechanical engineering. Practical Relevance. The proposed express methodology allows for the assessment of the complexity of a mechanical engineering project to support effective organizational and technical decision-making, as well as further feasibility studies for research and development.

Keywords

complexity assessment, design and engineering work, R&D, analog method, analysis approach, complexity coefficient

For citation

Shcheglov D.K., Shcheglov K.N. Express Method for Assessing the Complexity of New Developments Based on Analog Projects. Vestnik Magnitogorskogo Gosudarstvennogo Tekhnicheskogo Universiteta im. G.I. Nosova [Vestnik of Nosov Magnitogorsk State Technical University]. 2025, vol. 23, no. 2, pp. 188-200. https://doi.org/10.18503/1995-2732-2025-23-2-188-200

Dmitry K. Shcheglov – PhD (Eng.), Associate Professor, Scientific Supervisor, JSC North-West Regional Center of the Concern VKO Almaz – Antey – Obukhov Plant, St. Petersburg, Russia. Email: _dk@bk.ru. ORCID 0000-0003-2459-7684

Konstantin N. Shcheglov – Head of Research Department, FSBEI HE Baltic State Technical University VOENMEH named after D.F. Ustinov», St. Petersburg, Russia. Email: ohte_2@mail.ru.

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